Behavioral Macro: You Don’t Really Understand the... →
markdow: This is the question I always fantasize an insightful CNBC interviewer will ask of his/her guest after the guest offhandedly mumbles something about ‘the yen carry trade’. Odds are, though, it’ll never happen. What is a carry trade and why is it so pervasively misunderstood? First, a…
Behavioral Macro: The Case against Commodities and... →
markdow: Commodities as a group have been underperforming equities for about six months now. The correlation between the two groups has been grinding lower. Even more important, I think the underperformance of commodities—and by extension emerging markets—will persist for some time. Hang on. If the… And that is why they pay him the big bucks. key takeway - there is a fundamental...
Behavioral Macro: Sentiment and trading views,... →
markdow: I am not a consumer of the big, bold predictions and the surprise lists that roll in this time of year. They mostly serve marketing purposes, or as a call option on self-aggrandizement, or our desire, at some level, to be told what to do. But many people like them. Uncertainty—the kind…